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With one day left until the midterm elections for the US Congress, President Donald Trump used the final hours of the campaign to try to persuade voters to support Republicans. Judging by polls, Democrats have a high chance of winning a majority in the House of Representatives. They also retain hopes of control of the Senate, although this may be hampered by a scandal that erupted in one of the most important states for them, Michigan: at the center of which was the Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed, who, among other things, sharply criticizes Israel.
Trump held campaign rallies in Florida, Iowa and Kansas, states that were previously considered reliable Republican Party strongholds. That suggests Republicans are being forced to focus on holding their ground ahead of Tuesday's vote.
Trump also participated in remote campaign events supporting candidates in several states, including Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
American voters are dissatisfied with rising prices, including for fuel, which has risen sharply against the backdrop of the US and Israeli war against Iran. However, Trump tried to shift attention to criticizing the Democrats and said that if they win the election, they will “ruin” American families.
If the Democratic Party wins a majority in at least one chamber of Congress, it will be able to resist Trump's actions - and this could significantly change the course of the last two years of his presidency.
Harvard University's forecasting model, which analyzes and synthesizes the results of numerous public opinion polls and historical data, estimates the likelihood of Democrats winning a majority in the House of Representatives at 96% and in the Senate at 76%.
How Trump scared Americans about Democrats
On the campaign trail over the weekend, Trump told his supporters that he had transformed the country. Democrats plunged the United States into a “dark age,” he said, but under his leadership, “we quickly turned it into America’s golden age.”
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Judging by Trump's speeches at rallies, he pursued two goals: to distract voters' attention from the problem of the high cost of living and, by playing on their fears, to encourage Republican supporters to turn out to the polls.
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At rallies in Florida and Iowa, Trump emphasized the importance of his trade and immigration policies. He claimed that if Democrats came to power, they would “open the border,” “ruin your families,” “take away your guns,” and “mutilate your children.”
During his speeches, he showed video compilations of statements by Democrats who criticized US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and supported the rights of transgender people.
Trump supporters gathered at the rallies greeted his words with cheers. But there is also growing concern among some Republicans about the president's ability to win over more moderate voters.
Scandal in Michigan: Democrat supported Republican and opposed El-Sayed
House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries said over the weekend that he is "absolutely confident" his party is on track to win control of the House.
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Beyond the final campaign events, however, the race for Michigan's Senate seat took an unexpected turn over the weekend. The fight for this mandate, which now belongs to the Democrats, is particularly intense.
On Sunday, incumbent Rep. Haley Stevens, who lost her bid for the Democratic Senate nomination to Abdul El-Sayed, announced her endorsement of Republican candidate Mike Rogers.
The move drew condemnation from her party members and praise from Republicans, including Trump, who called her “very brave.”
El-Sayed, who was born in the United States to Egyptian immigrants, represents the progressive wing of the Democratic Party and could become the first Muslim senator in history. Stevens, on the other hand, is a more traditional Democratic politician.
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The most serious differences between the two politicians arose over attitudes towards Israel. El-Sayed sharply criticizes the actions of the Israeli military in the Gaza Strip and advocates ending US military assistance to Israel.
Stevens' mother, Maria Marcotte, told Reuters her daughter decided to support Rogers because he believed El-Sayed was engaging in dangerous political rhetoric. In particular, she mentioned his appearance with Hassan Piker, a left-leaning blogger who has been criticized for his comments about Israel and American Jews.
“She really got to the point where she felt like her constituents and the people she knows and loves were scared by the rhetoric,” Marcotte says.
On Sunday, Stevens appeared with Rogers and said she intended to support him over El-Sayed. “I have no place in Abdul’s campaign,” she said in a video message posted online by X. “Michigans don’t understand hate and they don’t understand what is coming from the Democratic candidate right now. That's why I support Mike Rogers."
This statement angered many Democrats, with party leader Chuck Schumer calling it a “disgusting betrayal.” El-Sayed reacted to Stevens' decision: "At the end of the day, I don't think about Hayley Stevens. None of this matters."
Trump and other members of the Republican Party have repeatedly lashed out at El-Sayed, leveling baseless accusations against him that he is disloyal to the United States and supports attacks on Americans. The Democratic politician called such allegations “shameful.”
The election for senator from Michigan is considered one of the most tense in the United States: the gap between the candidates is minimal.
Testing trust in government
In the run-up to the election, Trump and his administration have repeatedly questioned the integrity of future votes and the security of the election process, despite evidence suggesting voter fraud is extremely rare. The US Department of Justice initiated investigations in several states and also demanded that certain votes not be counted in the tally.
Trump has a lot at stake in this election, as midterm votes are traditionally seen as a measure of how satisfied Americans are with the incumbent's performance.
In most midterm elections, the party controlling the White House typically loses congressional seats to the opposition. Therefore, Republicans are taking more risks and are striving by all means to maintain control of Congress.
The loss of parliamentary mandates will make it difficult for them to pass laws and pursue their own political line.
For Democrats, gaining a majority will allow them to counter Trump's political agenda, conduct parliamentary investigations into his administration, and present Americans with their own vision of the country's future ahead of the 2028 presidential election.
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