The Democratic Party won a landslide victory in the U.S. midterm elections held on the 3rd and took control of both the House and Senate.
In midterm elections, the ‘ruling party’ usually struggles. However, considering the scale of this Republican Party's defeat, it is evaluated as a strong judgment on President Donald Trump's administration of state affairs over the past two years.
We looked at five reasons why the Republican Party lost a large number of seats, including voter anger and President Trump's low approval rating.
1. Soaring cost of living
Voters across the U.S. have been grappling with soaring prices of basic necessities. Anger over rising prices was clearly evident even in major battlegrounds.
A voter in North Carolina told the BBC before the election that he would vote for the Democratic Party instead of the Republican Party, saying, "Gas prices, food prices, everything is going up."
Consumer prices in September rose 3.7% from a year ago due to the impact of rising fuel and energy prices. According to government statistics, the average retail price of diesel in the United States in early October was close to $6.52 (about 8,700 won) per gallon, the all-time high recorded in September.
According to a voter survey, 79% of respondents said that they and their families had suffered serious or moderate economic hardship due to rising prices over the past year.
Additionally, more than 6 out of 10 respondents said that higher-than-usual prices are due to President Trump's policies.
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2. Iran War, which had low approval ratings
One of the main reasons for the surge in prices was the Iran war that the United States and Israel started in February.
Fuel prices soared as Iran effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation. The key transportation route for crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) around the world has been blocked.
Since then, American voters have felt the effects every time they fill up the tank.
The majority of Americans were negative about this war. Even among President Trump's 'MAGA (Make America Great Again)' supporters, there was a perception that he had broken his campaign promise to no longer wage war while promoting 'America First'.
In a voter survey, 63% of respondents said that it was a wrong decision for the United States to take military action against Iran.
Additionally, 74% of voters said the war was a decisive or important factor in deciding who to vote for in the House and Senate elections.
President Trump acknowledged the morning after the election that the war played a role in his defeat. However, in a Fox News interview, he claimed that he had no choice but to intervene to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.
3. The Democratic Party’s consistent ‘people’s livelihood message’
Competitive candidates played a large role in the Democratic Party's landslide victory in such a wide area. In particular, their sincerity resonated with voters in traditionally strong Republican areas.
Democratic candidates delivered consistent messages focusing on the burden of living expenses and access to medical services.
James Tallerico, a former teacher, and Adam Hamilton, a pastor, resonated with voters in Texas and Kansas, respectively, with their stories of faith.
In South Carolina, Democrat Annie Andrews defied expectations and won. Andrews, a former pediatrician, focused on reducing the burden of medical expenses. This message resonated with many Americans who believe the health care system is not working properly.
Abdul El-Sayed, a former public health official, won Michigan and retained his Democratic seat. He raised the slogan, “I will take money out of politics and fill your pockets” as a key message.
Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff, who was re-elected in Georgia, brought the cost of living and corruption issues to the forefront. As the 39-year-old Ossoff comfortably won a state that President Trump won twice, speculation that he can run for president in 2028 is expected to gain further strength.
Even President Trump told Fox News that the Democratic Party did a “good job.”
On the other hand, some Republican candidates, such as Ken Paxton of Texas, were criticized for poor campaigning, including failing to adequately address voters' concerns.
image copyrightBloomberg via Getty Images
4. Trump’s ‘low approval rating’ holds back the Republican Party
The two issues that had the greatest dissatisfaction among voters, soaring prices and the war with Iran, were both directly related to President Trump.
As President Trump's approval rating among Republican voters has fallen, there is a greater possibility that the Republican Party will struggle in some states that supported him in the 2024 presidential election.
In order to rally his supporters, President Trump encouraged them to vote thinking that it was an election he was running in.
However, some interpret it as a result showing that the value of Trump, who has been at the center of American politics for over 10 years, is not what it used to be.
Putting himself at the center of the Republican campaign at a time when voter anger was growing was a risky choice, and it appears to have backfired in the end.
In the months leading up to the election, opinion polls showed that many Americans wanted President Trump to do more to address their concerns about soaring prices.
But at his final rally in Washington, D.C., on Monday, President Trump spoke at length about renovations to the reflecting pool behind him. This construction project has been controversial.
5. Hispanic and black voters turn around again
In the presidential election two years ago, some Hispanic and black voters turned to the Republican Party, contributing to President Trump's clear victory. The trend appears to have reversed in this midterm election.
Democrats won all three predominantly Hispanic congressional districts along the Texas-Mexico border.
According to a New York Times analysis, in counties with a majority of Hispanic residents, the vote share of Republican senatorial candidates was more than 22 percentage points lower than the Republican vote share during the 2024 presidential election.
Data journalist Jeff Adelson explained that this is the biggest change among major population groups in the United States.
This change came amid growing dissatisfaction with immigration crackdowns. According to a Pew Research Center survey, 56% of Americans evaluated Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) negatively.
Even in counties with a majority of black residents, support for the Democratic Party has grown significantly in senatorial elections.
In Mississippi, the Senate election is showing signs of a very close race. Mississippi is the state with the highest proportion of black voters in the United States, at about 37%.
If Scott Colom wins, it will be the first Democratic U.S. senator elected from Mississippi since 1982.
