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The 31st session of the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP31) will be held this year in the Turkish city of Antalya, from 9 to 20 November, co-chaired by Turkey and Australia.
The abbreviation COP stands for Conference of the Parties, which refers to the approximately 200 countries that signed the first UN climate agreement in 1992.
COP31 is chaired by the Turkish Minister of Environment, Urban Planning and Climate Change, Murat Kurum, while the negotiations are led by the Australian Minister of Climate Change and Energy, Chris Bowen.
The conference is being held at a time when warnings are increasing regarding achieving global climate goals, while extreme weather phenomena are causing serious repercussions in different regions of the world, from Nepal to Istanbul.
According to a report issued by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) in October, the opportunity to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius has been largely missed.
But the report confirms that taking quick and decisive action is still capable of limiting the rise in temperatures, and the possibility of returning to the level of 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century.
The conference is also being held amid warnings of a strong weather phenomenon known as El Niño.
Scientists believe that the combination of the effects of this phenomenon and climate change caused by human activities may make the year 2027 one of the hottest years since temperature records began.
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The United Nations climate conferences remain the only global platform through which countries can make joint decisions to slow this path.
What to expect from the COP31 conference in Antalya?
Just Transition Mechanism from Belem to Antalya (BAM)
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The concept of a just transition is based on ensuring that workers or certain regions do not bear the economic and social burden resulting from the transition away from fossil fuels.
For example, the closure of coal mines or the conversion of heavy industries could harm millions of people, either through the loss of their jobs and income, or a decline in living conditions in areas whose economies depend on these activities. Therefore, countries have long called for the establishment of a more effective international mechanism that helps manage the social costs of reducing emissions.
One of the major achievements of the COP30 conference, held last year in the Brazilian city of Belém, was the decision to establish this mechanism.
The text of the resolution clearly stressed the importance of human rights, and the need for the participation of groups most vulnerable to the transition processes, including workers, women, indigenous peoples, persons with disabilities, migrants, youth, and workers in the informal economy.
However, many questions remain about how this mechanism, which civil society calls the Belem to Antalya Just Transition Mechanism (BAM), will be implemented.
The most prominent of these questions include the nature of the mechanism’s tasks, its sources of funding, and the extent of its connection to the process of abandoning fossil fuels.
Discussions took place in June 2026 about its working mechanism during the Bonn Climate Conference in Germany, where drafts were prepared that included various options and proposals.
It is noteworthy that the final version of this mechanism is expected to be determined during the Antalya Conference.
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Will countries be able to reach an agreement on climate finance?
Financing is one of the most prominent files that witness crucial negotiations and bargaining in climate diplomacy.
Advanced industrialized countries bear the bulk of the historical responsibility for the climate crisis, while developing countries, which bear much less responsibility for the emergence of the crisis, are most exposed to its negative effects.
Accordingly, it was recognized during the United Nations negotiations that developed countries should provide financial support to developing countries to help them implement measures to confront climate change.
One of the most important developments in recent years was the COP29 conference’s decision to triple the climate financing target allocated to developing countries.
In 2024, about 200 countries participating in the conference held in the Azerbaijani capital, Baku, agreed to raise the funding provided to developing countries from $100 billion annually to $300 billion annually by 2035.
Countries also agreed to work to increase total financing, through public and private sector contributions and other financing sources, to reach $1.3 trillion annually by 2035.
But there are still fundamental differences between developing countries and developed countries, or what are known as countries of the Global South and Global North, regarding how to transform these goals into reality.
During COP31, developing countries seek to establish a formal and regular framework to discuss the amount of funding that developed countries will allocate from their general budgets.
On the other hand, developed countries believe that the program should not be limited to government funding, but should also include the private sector and other sources of funding.
Although funding discussions were included in the initial agenda of COP31, demands for a separate item on this issue were not included.
This paves the way for the possibility of launching negotiations in Antalya amid sharp disagreements and discussions.
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Can the deadlock in the emissions reduction program be overcome?
The Mitigation Action Program (MWP) is the only program within the climate negotiations that focuses directly on reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
The program was established during the COP27 conference, which was held in 2022 in the Egyptian city of Sharm El Sheikh.
This program arrives at the COP31 conference after it became one of the outstanding issues over which negotiations faltered during the climate meetings in Bonn.
The main disagreement is the nature of the role the program should play. Some countries want the program to remain a facilitative platform that allows countries to exchange experiences and opinions, and discuss issues of financing, technology, and obstacles facing reducing emissions.
On the other hand, other countries are calling for it to be given a more important role, which includes stronger political directives to push countries towards reducing their emissions.
In Antalya, countries are scheduled to discuss not only the goals of the program, but also its future and continuity.
Unless the parties take a different decision, the program is expected to end at the end of 2026.
This may raise questions about the effectiveness of United Nations conferences in dealing with one of the most important issues in confronting climate change.
How will climate change adaptation goals be implemented?
The Paris Climate Agreement, which Türkiye ratified in 2021, defines adaptation to climate change as a shared global goal.
This path aims to expand the scope of policies and procedures that help societies deal with the effects of climate change.
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- Helping farmers avoid losing their crops as drought periods increase.
- Making cities more able to withstand severe heat waves.
- Strengthening the infrastructure to confront floods and torrents.
During COP30, countries reached agreement on 59 climate change adaptation indicators in Belém, aiming to define criteria by which adaptation efforts can be assessed, from coping with drought to protecting infrastructure and biodiversity.
However, during the Bonn talks, countries were unable to reach agreement on the structure of the technical working group charged with developing these indicators, nor did they agree on a follow-up mechanism for the pledge to triple financing for adaptation to climate change by 2035.
It is expected that the resolution of these differences will depend on the results of the negotiations during the COP31 conference.
How will divestment from fossil fuels be discussed?
For the first time, after nearly 30 years of negotiations, countries were able to reach an agreement on the transition away from fossil fuels, during the COP28 conference held in Dubai.
Last year, more than 80 countries during the COP30 conference called for the preparation of a global roadmap to abandon fossil fuels.
However, a specific timetable for implementation has not been reached, due to differences between the economies that depend on oil and natural gas, and the countries that demand more ambitious steps in this field.
Although abandoning fossil fuels is an essential step to slow climate change, it remains one of the most complex and difficult issues in international negotiations.
The two countries holding the co-presidency of the COP31 conference, Türkiye and Australia, have been criticized by civil society organizations for their plans to increase fossil fuel production.
Until now, Türkiye has not been at the forefront of countries pushing to abandon fossil fuels during climate negotiations.
The President of COP31, Murat Kurum, did not make statements directly focusing on abandoning these sources, but rather indicated that the world will work to gradually reduce its dependence on them through steps such as increasing investments in renewable energy.
Accordingly, it is not expected that there will be a radical shift in the way the issue of direct transition away from fossil fuels is addressed during the climate conference hosted by Türkiye.
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An “implementation conference” and agenda for climate action
Türkiye, like Brazil, which hosted the previous conference, adopted the slogan “Implementation Conference” as part of its preparations to host COP31.
This trend is based on accelerating climate action by facilitating the implementation of hundreds of initiatives presented during climate conferences, with the participation of companies, investors, cities, local administrations, and civil society organizations.
In the context of providing complementary tools for formal negotiations, the COP31 Presidency announced its own priorities during the Bonn meetings.
These priorities are called the “action agenda” and include the following:
- Electrification: Raising the percentage of final energy demand that is met through electricity, which is currently slightly more than 20 percent, to 35 percent by 2035.
- Reducing the increase in global waste: Reducing the growth rate of global waste by half by 2035. Türkiye believes that this step will play an important role in reducing methane emissions. Although the concentration of methane in the atmosphere is lower than that of carbon dioxide, it is one of the gases that contribute most to climate change. Türkiye does not belong to the group of 160 countries that have joined the pledge to reduce methane emissions by at least 30 percent by 2030, compared to 2020 levels.
- Resilient cities: Working to reduce energy consumption intensity in the housing sector by no less than 25 percent by 2035, within a goal known as “resilient and resilient cities.”
- Circular economy: Encouraging reuse and recycling, with the aim of raising the percentage of materials that are reused globally to at least 15 percent.
In addition to these priorities, the climate action agenda includes other topics, including highlighting the relationship between oceans and climate change, and preparing a declaration focusing on artificial intelligence’s energy consumption.
During the UN General Assembly meetings held in New York, an initiative called the “Climate Action Bridge” was also announced.
Murat Kurum said that this initiative will support the establishment of a “stronger” link between Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and economic policies.
It is expected that this bridge will help expand the scope of private capital participation in emission reduction projects.
Türkiye emphasizes that the initiative is neither a new fund nor an independent financing mechanism, nor does it aim to be an alternative to already existing initiatives.
Unlike formal negotiations, progress on these initiatives does not require unanimous agreement by all countries. During the Antalya Conference, countries are expected to seek progress on issues on which it is difficult to reach consensus, through the climate action agenda and voluntary initiatives.
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