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Votes are being counted in the midterm elections held on the 3rd, which will determine the second half of US President Donald Trump's term. The election results will determine whether the Republican Party, led by Trump, will take control of both houses of Congress, or whether the opposition Democratic Party will regain control of both houses of Congress.
parliamentary control
The upper house of Congress has 100 seats. The term of office for senators is six years, and approximately 30% of the seats are up for election every two years. Thirty-five seats will be up for grabs in the November election. In the Senate, 51 seats are needed for a single majority. However, if the Senate is tied 50-50, the vice president would cast the deciding vote, giving that party control of the Senate.
The House of Representatives has 435 seats, and all seats are up for election. To win a majority, a party needs 218 seats.
There are several states in the Eastern Standard Time region that are expected to have close Senate races, including Ohio and Maine. These election results may provide an early clue as to the sentiments of voters.
US media outlets begin ``predicting'' some important election results even before vote counting is complete. This is a prediction of the voting results in each state based on exit poll data and other information before the final voting results are released.
These ``sure-to-win'' predictions are released when news organizations determine that a political party or candidate has built an irreversible lead. However, in states where close races are expected, it may take some time for the predictions to be announced.
The overall timing of results will depend on how close each race is and which races ultimately decide the winner or loser.
When will the 2022 election results be known?
In the November 2022 midterm elections, the Republicans and Democrats were still in a close battle for control of Congress as of the next day, the 9th.
At the time, Republicans seemed likely to win the House of Representatives, but the race for seats in the Senate remained tense.
It took several days for the full story to become clear. On November 17, CBS News predicted that Republicans had secured the 218 seats needed to win a majority in the House of Representatives.
It took four days to count votes in the crucial Senate race in the western state of Nevada. Democrats narrowly won the state, increasing their number to 50 seats. Then-Vice President Kamala Harris cast the tie-breaking vote, allowing Democrats to maintain a majority in the Senate.
Georgia's Senate race had to be decided in a runoff because no candidate received more than 50% of the vote in the November election.
Results were not announced until December 7, when Democrats won the seat.
Which states should we focus on?
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According to the Cook Political Report, an independent election analysis organization, Senate races in Alaska, Kansas, Iowa, Maine, Ohio and Texas are considered close contests.
Those six seats are currently held by Republicans. To gain a majority in the Senate, Democrats would need to win three of those seats, plus five that are Democratic-dominant or Democratic-leaning.
Polls show that Democrats have a good chance of winning in Texas. Democratic candidate James Talarico, a former teacher, could defeat state Attorney General Ken Paxton. If Talarico defeats Paxton, who is close to Trump, it would be the first time a Democrat will win a Senate seat in Texas since 1988.
Democrats also need to hold onto seats in Michigan. In the state, the race between Abdul El-Sayed, a newcomer to the Democratic Party, and former FBI agent Mike Rogers, an ally of Trump, is attracting a lot of attention. The state was originally classified as ``50-50'' by the Cook Political Report, but was changed to ``Democrat-dominated'' the day before Election Day.
The difference in seats between the ruling and opposition parties in the House of Representatives is currently so close that the difference cannot be any closer. Republicans hold just a majority of 218 seats, and there is one independent who will vote with Republicans in the House vote.
Some of the hottest races in the House of Representatives are concentrated in East Coast states, according to the Cook Political Report. Examples include New York's 17th district, Pennsylvania's 8th district, and Virginia's 1st district.
When is the voting deadline?
Voting first closed at 6pm ET (8am Japan time on the 4th) in Kentucky and Indiana.
Voting then closed in Ohio at 7:30 p.m. ET. Here, Republican Sen. Jon Husted is in a close race against Democratic candidate Sherrod Brown. The results of this state may provide clues to the overall development.
Voting closed in Maine at 8pm ET. It is a close race between Republican Sen. Susan Collins and Democratic Sen. Troy Jackson.
Voting closes in Iowa, Kansas and Texas at 9pm ET.
Voting closes in the final battleground state of Alaska at 1 a.m. ET on the 4th. There is a close race in the state between Democratic candidate Mary Peltola and Republican incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan. Dan Sullivan, who shares the same name as the congressman, is also listed on the ballot as a candidate in the race.
How to tally votes
Each state conducts its own elections and sets its own rules for counting and processing votes.
Some states, like Florida, start counting early votes before Election Day, while others don't count them until Election Day.
Election officials across the state verify, process and tabulate each individual vote.
Most states require audits after elections to manually count ballots and compare them with machine counts, but rules vary by state. Complete manual aggregation is generally limited to recounts.
Each state and municipality has rules governing who can participate in vote-counting, the order in which ballots are processed, how much is visible to the public, how partisan observers monitor vote-counting, and, in some states, how formal challenges can be filed.
Image copyrightBloomberg via Getty Images
Is there a possibility that vote counting will be delayed?
In a close race, counting the votes will take time, creating the possibility of recounts and legal challenges.
Mail-in ballots take longer to count because workers have to process envelopes and verify signatures.
More than 30 states allow counting of votes before Election Day, but others do not. In California, all ballots must be mailed on or before Election Day, but they will still be counted if they arrive within seven days of Election Day.
Alaska's ranked-choice voting system means that counting can take significantly longer than in other parts of the country, and disputes over ballots could complicate legal challenges.
What if the results are disputed?
After all votes are counted in the final results and recounts and other procedures are completed, the election results will be certified. Certification occurs first at municipalities, then counties, and then states.
The governor then typically signs certifications for the House and Senate winners and sends them to the Legislature.
You can also appeal the results. In the case of a close race, candidates can request a recount. Additionally, in some states, recounts are automatically conducted if the vote difference is within a certain amount.
Candidates can also file legal challenges alleging fraud in the election.
The final decision lies with Congress. Candidates who lose both the House and Senate elections can appeal for reelection, but the process is slightly different in both chambers.
In theory, both chambers can refuse to appoint members or order an investigation.
When will the elected candidates take office?
Members of the Federal Assembly whose terms of office expire on January 3 (Sunday) next year. New members could also be sworn in on the same day, unless Congress passes a law specifying a different date.
(English article When will we know the US midterms results?)
